Five Dark Horse Teams That Could Shock the World at the 2026 World Cup

By World Soccer Wire Editorial

The favorites are obvious. France, Argentina, Spain, Brazil — we know their names. But the 2026 World Cup's expanded 48-team format creates more paths to glory than ever before. Here are five teams flying under the radar that could make a deep run this summer.

The 2026 World Cup is the biggest, most unpredictable tournament in history. For the first time, 48 teams compete across 12 groups, with the top two from each group plus the eight best third-place finishers advancing to a 32-team knockout round. That new format matters more than people realize. Teams that would have gone home in the group stage in previous tournaments now have a second chance. Margins are smaller. Upsets are more likely.

The favorites — France, Argentina, Spain, Brazil, England, Germany — are still the favorites. But in an expanded tournament played across three countries with massive, passionate crowds at every venue, any of the following five teams could make a run that nobody sees coming.

1. Turkey — The Perennial Nearly-Team That's Ready to Finally Arrive

Turkey is the most talked-about dark horse in the tournament, and for good reason. They're ranked around FIFA #29 but have a long history of consistently outperforming that number at major tournaments. At Euro 2024 in Germany they reached the quarterfinals before losing to the Netherlands. At the 2002 World Cup — the last time they qualified — they finished third.

The 24-year wait to get back to the World Cup has only sharpened the hunger. Vincenzo Montella's side qualified through a competitive UEFA bracket and brings a young, technically gifted squad that's comfortable on the ball and dangerous on the counter. They're in Group D alongside the USMNT, which means American fans will get to see them up close on June 25.

The concern with Turkey — and it's a legitimate one — is that they've burned people before. Euro 2020 was a disaster for a side that arrived heavily fancied. But this is a different team, with better players and better coaching, and the expanded format gives them more runway to find their rhythm.

How far can they go? Quarterfinal ceiling if the bracket breaks right.

2. Colombia — Unfinished Business on North American Soil

Colombia isn't exactly a secret — they're ranked FIFA #9 and were Copa América runners-up in 2024 — but the betting markets still underrate them and casual fans aren't talking about them the way they should be.

This is one of the most gifted attacking generations in Colombian soccer history. Luis Díaz (Bayern Munich) is one of the most exciting wide players in world football. James Rodríguez, now in the veteran stage of his career, still carries the playmaking creativity that made him the 2014 World Cup's breakout star. The group as a whole plays with a fluid, high-tempo style that can dismantle organized defenses.

There's also a psychological element here. The last time Colombia played a World Cup on North American soil was 1994, and it ended in tragedy — a group-stage exit followed by the murder of defender Andrés Escobar. More than 30 years on, there's a sense of unfinished business for this program on this particular stage. That kind of motivation is hard to quantify but real.

How far can they go? Semifinal if Díaz stays healthy and the bracket is kind.

3. Japan — The Team That Keeps Defying the Odds

Japan has quietly become one of the most dangerous sides in world soccer, and the expanded format is almost tailor-made for how they play. At the 2022 World Cup they won their group ahead of Germany and Spain — two of the tournament favorites — before losing on penalties to Croatia in the Round of 16.

The 2026 squad is better. Japan's players are more distributed across Europe's top leagues than ever before, and the tactical discipline that coach Hajime Moriyasu has built over the last four years gives them the ability to absorb pressure and hit teams on rapid, precise counters. They won't dominate possession against elite opposition. They don't need to.

The expanded tournament gives Japan more group stage matches to settle in, and the new round-of-32 format means they don't face a top-eight side until the round of 16. That's three matches to build momentum before the real test arrives.

How far can they go? Quarterfinal, possibly further.

4. Senegal — Africa's Best Team on the World's Biggest Stage

Senegal presents a unique challenge for any opponent. They have the physicality to match Europe's best, the technical quality to compete with South America's finest, and a genuine match-winner in Sadio Mané who has been playing some of the best football of his career heading into the summer.

They were knocked out in the Round of 16 by England in 2022. In 2002 — their first-ever World Cup — they reached the quarterfinals on debut, beating France along the way. This squad has a healthy balance of those veteran tournament survivors and an emerging core of younger players built around Mané.

The draw handed them a tough Group F alongside France, which makes advancing from the group stage a genuine challenge. But Senegal has a history of making things difficult for France specifically, and if they navigate the group — even as a third-place qualifier — they become a nightmare opponent for anyone in the knockouts.

How far can they go? Round of 16 at minimum, quarterfinals if they avoid France again in the knockouts.

5. Egypt — Mo Salah's Last Dance

Egypt has never won a World Cup finals match in three separate tournament appearances. The expanded format and an aging but supremely motivated Mohamed Salah might change that.

This will almost certainly be Salah's last World Cup. The Liverpool legend is one of the greatest players of his generation and he has never had the stage to show it on the global tournament that matters most. His teammates know it. The entire country knows it. That kind of collective motivation can carry a team through matches it has no business winning.

Egypt opens against Belgium, which is a brutal start. But a result there — even a draw — sets up everything that follows. And in an expanded format where eight third-place finishers advance, Egypt doesn't need to top their group. They just need to get through.

How far can they go? Round of 32 floor, Round of 16 if Salah delivers one of those performances that reminds everyone why he's been the best player in the Premier League for nearly a decade.

The Bonus Pick: Norway and Erling Haaland

No dark horse list feels complete without mentioning Norway. Erling Haaland is the most devastating striker in world football — the man who scored 66 goals in a single Premier League season. A Norway side built around him, given three group stage matches to find their footing in an expanded tournament, is a genuinely frightening prospect for whoever lines up against them.

Norway plays in a tough group alongside France and Senegal, which makes advancement uncertain. But if they get through — and they have enough quality to do it — a Haaland-led Norway in the knockout rounds is the kind of story the tournament deserves.

Keep an Eye on the Bracket

The 2026 World Cup's expanded format means the path to the final is longer and more variable than any previous tournament. Dark horses have more opportunities to build momentum, avoid elite opponents early, and arrive at the quarterfinals with the kind of confidence that makes them dangerous.

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