USMNT Group D Preview
USMNT World Cup 2026 Group D Preview: Can the US Survive the Toughest Home Test in Decades?
By World Soccer Wire Editorial
Paraguay, Australia, and Turkey stand between the United States and the knockout round. Here's what to expect from each match — and whether this USMNT squad is ready for the moment.
The draw could have been kinder. It could have been crueler. What it gave the United States is a Group D that looks manageable on paper but comes with real teeth — a defensively disciplined South American side, a scrappy Australian team that punched well above its weight four years ago, and a Turkish squad that many are quietly calling the dark horse of the entire tournament.
Playing at home, in front of crowds the program hasn't seen in a generation, the USMNT is the favorite to advance. But favorites at home World Cups have stumbled before, and Mauricio Pochettino's side goes into June 12 with some unresolved questions that won't wait much longer for answers.
The Schedule
All three US matches air live on FOX. Here's the full Group D fixture list:
Date Match Venue Kickoff (ET) TV June 12 USA vs. Paraguay SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles 9:00 PM FOX June 13 Australia vs. Turkey BC Place, Vancouver 12:00 AM FS1 June 19 USA vs. Australia Lumen Field, Seattle 3:00 PM FOX June 19 Turkey vs. Paraguay Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara 11:00 PM FS1 June 25 USA vs. Turkey SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles 10:00 PM FOX June 25 Paraguay vs. Australia Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara 10:00 PM FS1
The US Squad: Talent at the Top, Questions in the Back
Pochettino is expected to name his final 26-man roster on May 26 in New York City. The core looks settled. Christian Pulisic (AC Milan) remains the captain and the face of the program despite a goalless stretch that's raised eyebrows. Folarin Balogun (Monaco) has been the most consistent forward in this cycle, with 20 goals across all competitions this season and a run of form that included three goals against PSG in the Champions League. Weston McKennie (Juventus) is arguably the most in-form American player going into the summer, with nine goals and eight assists across 43 appearances for the Italian giants.
Tyler Adams (Bournemouth) takes the captain's armband in the midfield, returning from an MCL injury that cost him several months. He's back in the Bournemouth rotation and remains the most important player in the squad when healthy. Behind him, Tim Weah (Marseille), Brenden Aaronson (Leeds United), and Malik Tillman (Bayer Leverkusen) give Pochettino genuine options on the wings and in the attacking third.
The lingering concern is at the back. The Richards-Ream center back pairing showed vulnerabilities in the March friendlies against Belgium and Portugal — a 5-2 and 2-0 loss respectively. Tim Ream at 37 brings experience but was caught out badly against Belgium. Chris Richards (Crystal Palace) has been one of the better stories of this cycle, but he hasn't been tested at this level yet.
Projected Starting XI: Freese; Richards, M. Robinson, Ream; Weah, McKennie, Adams, A. Robinson; Tillman, Balogun, Pulisic.
Opponent #1: Paraguay — The Wall
June 12 | SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles | 9:00 PM ET on FOX
Paraguay doesn't care about your possession stats. They have never cared about your possession stats. Under their current setup, they are one of the most organized defensive units in CONMEBOL — happy to sit deep, absorb pressure, and hit you the moment your shape gets sloppy.
Miguel Almirón is the engine, doing the unglamorous work of transitioning defense into attack and carrying the ball through midfield when Paraguay needs to release pressure. Julio Enciso is the wild card — the Premier League winger capable of a long-range stunner that changes a game in a blink.
The danger for the US isn't conceding to Paraguay. It's drawing 0-0. A tight result in the opener puts enormous pressure on the next two matches. Pochettino will need his players to be patient, move the ball quickly against a low block, and resist the temptation to force things in front of what will be one of the loudest crowds the USMNT has ever played in front of.
The crowd is an asset here. The atmosphere at SoFi for the opener is going to be unlike anything most of these players have experienced, and it could genuinely discomfort a Paraguayan side that thrives in quiet, grinding matches. Home advantage at a home World Cup is not a small thing.
Prediction: USA 2-0 Paraguay
Opponent #2: Australia — The Press
June 19 | Lumen Field, Seattle | 3:00 PM ET on FOX
Australia made the Round of 16 in Qatar four years ago and came within a penalty shootout of the quarterfinals. Tony Popovic's side doesn't arrive in North America to make up numbers. They're currently running an extensive pre-tournament training camp in Sarasota, Florida, and they will be organized and aggressive from the first whistle.
The Socceroos' game plan is built on pressing hard, winning the ball in the middle third, and moving quickly to wide areas. They tend to play with a high defensive line, which is a gift for a forward like Balogun who thrives on balls played in behind. If Adams and McKennie can release Balogun early and often, the US should create multiple clear chances.
Australia's best avenue to a goal is set pieces. They have the physicality to be dangerous in the box from corners and free kicks, and that's an area where the US defense has to stay sharp.
Lumen Field in Seattle will be a pro-US crowd, and the Socceroos have barely played there in a decade. That won't be a comfortable environment for them.
Prediction: USA 2-1 Australia
Opponent #3: Turkey — The Dark Horse
June 25 | SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles | 10:00 PM ET on FOX
Here's where it gets interesting. Turkey qualified through a competitive UEFA bracket and returns to the World Cup for the first time since their remarkable 2002 run — when they finished third. They are young, technically gifted, and the team most neutrals across Europe are watching with genuine curiosity.
By the time the US and Turkey meet on June 25, both teams will likely know whether advancement is already secured or still on the line. If the US wins its first two matches, this becomes a dead rubber. But if results elsewhere create pressure, a night match at SoFi against an attack-minded Turkish side is exactly the kind of game that can define a tournament.
Turkey's best players operate in tight spaces and are comfortable with the ball under pressure — a different challenge entirely from Paraguay's physicality or Australia's pressing game. The US midfield will need to be at its best to control the tempo.
Prediction: USA 1-1 Turkey
Group D Advancement Odds
Current market probabilities for advancing from Group D:
Team Odds to Win Group Odds to Advance USA 41% 82% Turkey 37% 80% Paraguay 17% 66% Australia 10% 40%
The US and Turkey are both expected to go through. Paraguay is capable of complicating that picture if results break a certain way.
The Bottom Line
This is a winnable group. Realistically, this USMNT squad should collect seven points — wins over Paraguay and Australia, a draw with Turkey — and advance to the Round of 32 with something left in the tank.
But the March results against Belgium and Portugal exposed real defensive fragility, and Pochettino hasn't had enough time with this squad to paper over every crack. Pulisic's form is the other variable nobody wants to talk about too loudly. He's been goalless for club and country since late December — that's a long dry spell heading into the biggest tournament of his career.
Home advantage closes gaps. A full SoFi Stadium on June 12 will do things that no tactical setup can replicate. If the US handles the Paraguay opener the way they should — composed, patient, and eventually clinical — the path to the knockouts clears considerably.
Catch all three USMNT group stage matches live on FOX. Stream them on FOX One ($19.99/month), FuboTV [FUBO AFFILIATE LINK], or Sling TV [SLING TV AFFILIATE LINK]. Spanish-language coverage on Telemundo and Peacock [PEACOCK AFFILIATE LINK].
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